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IPCC最新リポート 2050年までに石炭発電全廃を 日・豪は反対

 産業革命以前に比べての2040年までの地球気温上昇を1.5℃以内に抑えたいなら()、2050年までに石炭発電を全廃せねばならなない。

2016年パリ協定で委嘱された国連気候変動政府間パネル(IPCC)最新リポート(本日・月曜日)午発表予定)は、漏れ出るところによると、そう言っているそうである。

 日本、韓国、ポーランド、エストニアと、パリ協定離脱論争の最中ある世界最大の石炭輸出国・オーストラリアが、2050年までに石炭発電全廃の字句をリポートに盛り込むことに反対した。アメリカは既にトランプ大統領がパリ協定離脱を誓っており、ブラジルの最有力大統候補・ジャイール・ボウソナロ)もパリ協定離脱とアマゾンのアグリビジネスへの開放を約束している。(石炭発電全廃なんて、まず無理だ)

 Major climate report expected to call for coal shut-down by 2050,Sydney Morning Herald,1810.7

 Leaked drafts of the report suggest global warming will exceed the critical 1.5 degrees threshold by 2040 unless rapid and radical action is taken across all sectors of the economy, including energy, transport, agriculture and the built environment.

The summary for policymakers, to be released on Monday, is expected to warn that coal use for electricity must be virtually eliminated by 2050 if the limit of 1.5 degrees is to be met. The use of natural gas would also decline substantially as electricity markets transitioned to renewable, low- or zero-emissions technology.

A source close to the talks said Australian officials sought to remove references to phasing out coal from the final version of the document when government negotiators joined scientists and diplomats from around the world in South Korea last week.

Fairfax Media was told Australia joined Japan, South Korea, Poland and Estonia in calling for the change, but the group later abandoned the push.

 IPCC climate change report calls for urgent action to phase out fossil fuels - live,The Guardian,18.10.8

 Politically, the issue of global warming and how to address it is in a much more precarious situation than when this report was commissioned in 2016.

Donald Trump has pledged to withdraw the US from the Paris Accord. The Australian government - currently coming through another bout of leadership instability - has also flagged withdrawing. It was already failing its targets.

Jair Bolsonaro, who today won the first round of voting in the presidential election in Brazil, has also pledged to withdraw from the Accord and to open up the Amazon for agribusiness.

On the other side are low-lying island nations, already feeling the impact of rising sea levels.

The Marshall Islands has announced a plan to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

The report found that holding warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius could save an Alaska-size area of the Arctic from permafrost thaw, muting a feedback loop that could lead to still more global emissions. The occurrence of entirely ice-free summers in the Arctic Ocean goes from one per century to one per decade between 1.5 and 2 degrees, it found — one of many ways in which the mere half a degree has large real-world consequences.

Risks of extreme heat and weather events just rise and rise as temperatures do, meaning these would be worse worldwide the more it warms.

To avoid that, in barely more than 10 years, the world’s percentage of electricity from renewables such as solar and wind power would have to jump from the current 24 percent to something more like 50 or 60 percent. Coal and gas plants that remain in operation would need to be equipped with technologies, collectively called carbon capture and storage (CCS), that prevent them from emitting carbon dioxide into the air and instead funnel it to be buried underground. By 2050, most coal plants would shut down.

Cars and other forms of transportation, meanwhile, would need to be shifting strongly toward being electrified, powered by these same renewable energy sources.

The world has barely 10 years to get climate change under control, U.N. scientists say,The Washington Post,18.10.7

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Author:寿
農業情報研究所(WAPIC)=http://www.juno.dti.ne.jp/~tkitaba/の所長・所員・小使いを兼務。原発事故で「明るい農業・農村」の夢を失った老い先短い老人です。

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