気候変動 今日の注目記事 2019年4月19日

New climate models forecast a warming surge Science  19 Apr 2019:Vol. 364, Issue 6437, pp. 222-223

A host of global climate models developed for the United Nations's next major assessment of global warming, due in 2021, are now showing a puzzling but undeniable trend: They are running hotter than they have in the past. In earlier models, doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide over preindustrial levels led models to predict somewhere between 2°C and 4.5°C of warming once the planet came into balance. But in at least eight of the next-generation models, produced by leading centers in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and France, that "equilibrium climate sensitivity" has come in at 5°C or warmer. Many scientists, including the model developers, are doubtful this increased warming is likely to be real. Over the next year, they will be comparing notes on what happened in their models, which in many cases simulate the Earth system better than ever before. It's also possible that climate sensitivities from models will be de-emphasized in the next U.N. climate assessment, further replaced instead by restraints from the ancient climate and modern observations.


It’s been exceptionally warm in Greenland lately and ice is melting a month early,The Washington Post,19.4.18

You might have heard about the exceptional heat this year in the northern hemisphere and around the world. March was just declared the second warmest on record globally

Records have been shattered in Alaska. Scotland hit 70 degrees in February. Winter warmth has torched the U.K., Netherlands and Sweden as well — coming on the heels of Europe’s warmest year on record. But they’re not alone.

Greenland is baking, too. In fact, its summer melt season has already begun — more than a month ahead of schedule.

Marco Tedesco is a professor in atmospheric sciences at the Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University. He monitors behavior of the cryospherethe part of earth’s water system that is frozen. He says melting of this extent shouldn’t begin until May. “The first melt event was detected on April 7,” he wrote in email.

Greenland melt extent in 2019, compared to normal. (National Snow and Ice Data Center)



首相の温暖化懇提言「石炭火力全廃」案後退 産業界反対「依存引き下げ」に 東京新聞 19.4.19